Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for August 28th - September 1st

S&P 500 in stoppage time on 10% correction clock

As of today’s close it has been 565 calendar days since S&P 500 completed its last correction of 10% or more compared to an average of 515 calendar days. Using a 20% decline as the definition of a bear market, there have been 11 bull markets including the current one and 10 bear markets since 1949. The previous ten bull markets lasted an average of 1770 calendar days and produced gains averaging 161.4%. Within these 11 bull markets there were 23 corrections ranging from 10% to 19.9% for an average of about two corrections per bull market. The current bull market, at 3073 days old and 266.7% gain is above average in duration and magnitude.

In the following table, each bull market has been broken down and includes the corrections that occurred within it. The bull markets beginning and end dates and closing prices are included and are used to calculate the “Days Between Corrections.” In each row labeled “Bull End,” that bull market’s duration and gain is calculated.

The quickest correction was 18 calendar days in 1955 while the longest was 531 from September 1976 to March 1978. The longest the S&P 500 went without a 10% correction was 2553 calendar days from October 1990 until October 1997. The second longest streak without a correction occurred in the last bull market that ended in 2007 when the S&P 500 went 1673 days. The fewest number of days between corrections was 35 in 1974.

 

Just bumping this post back to the top here.

Today is the final trading day in August so if you guys haven't done so already (or are perhaps waiting until today's close) don't forget to get those monthly votes and monthly picks in for September!

EDIT: I almost forgot to post this as well but here is NFP # prediction poll for tomorrow-

• Nail the #! Predict Friday's (9.1.17) NFP's... <-- click there to post your NFP headline # prediction!

Would be great to get some votes & picks in before tomorrow!

 

^^ wow nice pop the past few days! new 52wk highs here and the highest since jan. of last year i think



nasdaq and nasdaq 100 are now within striking distance of ATHs



here are the current wtd, mtd, qtd, ytd stats for the major indices as of right now (i'll have this posted up again in here after today's close)-



spx sitting right around the unch'd line for the month as of now!

 

Here are the final percentage changes for the major indices for month end August-

 

Everything You Wanted To Know About September, But Were Afraid To Ask
Posted by lplresearch

Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason since it has historically seen the worst performance. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “September is the banana peel month, as some of the largest dips tend to take place during this month. Although the economy is still quite strong, this doesn’t mean some usual September volatility is out of the question—in fact, we’d be surprised it volatility didn’t pick up given how calm things have been this year.”

With the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank all set to announce interest rate decisions this month, and the S&P 500 Index up on a total return basis nine consecutive months as of the end of July, the stage is set for some fireworks in September.

Here’s some data to consider as September approaches:

• Since 1928, no month sports a lower average return than September, with the S&P 500 down 1.0% on average. February and May are the only other months that are generally in the negative, while July surprisingly tends to be the strongest month of the year.



• Since 1928, the S&P 500 has been higher in September only 43.8% of the time, which is by far the lowest amount—as no other month is less than 50%. December is up most often at 73.0%.

• Since 1950, September has been the worst month of the year down 0.5%, while the past 20 years it has been the second weakest month, with August faring worse.

• The worst September ever for the S&P 500 resulted in a 30% drop in 1931. In fact, no other month has had more 10% drops than September at seven. Interestingly, January is the only month that has never been down 10% or more.

• Over the past 10 years, September has been positive on average, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%. But it is worth noting that September has been lower each of the past three years.

• Since 1950, if the S&P 500 starts the month of September above its 200-day moving average (like 2017 will), it tends to do much better, as it is up 0.4% on average versus down 2.7% if it starts the month below the 200-day moving average.

• Last, August is historically a weak month as well. Generally, when the S&P 500 is lower in August what we tend to see in September is that the month is down as well. On average it’s been down 0.4%, right in line with the average monthly return.

 

Just a very quick reminder in here that the U.S. markets will be closed this coming Monday for Labor Day.

Hope y'all have an awesome long weekend with your families & friends!

I can't believe the summer is nearly done with. This 2017 sure is flying!