Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for August 28th - September 1st

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of August 28th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:




Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

T.B.A.

 

Jackson Hole'd - Dollar Dumps To 2-Year Lows After 2 Million Ounce Gold Flush
The dollar today...


Summarizing the week's moves: Dollar dump sparks buying binge in bonds, bullion, and stocks (but sinks FANG Stocks)

And this was what happened in FX markets...





Early stock gains - once again thanks to Gary Cohn confirming he is not resigning - topped out as Yellen's speech was released. Once Europe closed, stocks went bid as usual, with some noise around Draghi's speech, but the close was ugly...

Nasdaq ended red...





A big rip in Trannies sees all the major stock indices green on the week...





S&P 500 remains below its 50DMA...





NOTE that after Yellen and Draghi, stocks slid...





FANG Stocks fell on the week...(NOTE no afternoon bounce today)





Treasury yields tumbled after Yellen's unhawkish speech, pushing all but 2Y lower on the week...





30Y Yield ended back near June 26 lows, dropping on Yellen's speech (NOTE the pop and drop in yield as Draghi's speech dropped)...





The Bill curve remains seriously inflected BUT the spread across the end of September did drop very modestly today...





The Dollar Index was the most obvious vehicle to react to J-Hole chatter today, tumbling to its lowest level since July 2015 after Yellen offered nothing 'hawkish'...





Intraday, the moves are clear as Yellen and Draghi spoke...Biggest down day for the dollar since March 15 rate hike...





EUR was the week's biggest gainer...





EURUSD spiking above 1.19 to the highest since Jan 2015...





Dollar's drop helped support commmodities with copper outperforming, gold and silver both up (but crude down on Harvey hammering)...





Quite a volatile week in the energy patch with inventory data, production, and Hurrican Harvey confusing machines everywhere...





Gold traders were a little shocked at the farcical mainpulation that happened in the minutes leading up to Yellen's speech... In a span of just one minute, 21,256 gold future contracts, equal to more than 2 million ounces of the precious metal, were traded before her speech was released after gold futures tagged $1300 on Kaplan comments...





Gold leads the way in 2017 - outperforming the S&P and bonds so far...





Finally, it was an ugly week for "hard data" economic surprises - which dropped back near their weakest since March 2015...

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Storm Warning

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

No, I am not talking about “Hurricane Harvey” which will likely be the first hurricane to strike the Texas coast since 2008, but rather the potential for another “debt ceiling” debacle brewing in Washington.

Just recently, Goldman Sachs raised its odds for a government shutdown from 33% to 50% which was further supported by recent statements from President Trump that he would be willing to risk a Government “shutdown” to get his border wall funded. However, as Axios.com noted yesterday:


“A top Republican source put the chance as high as 75%: ‘The peculiar part is that almost everyone I talk to on the Hill agrees that it is more likely than not.’


This may all come down to Trump’s mood. As Swan puts it: ‘Trump is spoiling for a fight and the [conservative House] Freedom Caucus haven’t had a fight for a while. That’s a dangerous dynamic.'”


While a Government shutdown is often used as a mechanism to force legislative action by threatening default on the national debt. Let me just assure, the Government WILL NOT default on its mandatory spending requirements which includes the social welfare system and interest payments on the debt. Given those items comprise 75% of the budget, the remaining 25% of discretionary categories could see cuts such as the temporary furloughs of some 900,000 government workers considered to be “non-essential.”


Of course, if you have a job that is considered to be “NON-essential,” maybe that is a good place to start cutting Government spending to begin with.

Sorry, I digress.

The REAL problem with a government shutdown is it will serve as another distraction to keep the current Administration off of their primary task of passing their legislative agenda of tax reform, cuts, infrastructure spending and immigration reform. As I have stated many times previously, this is one of the biggest risk to the markets currently.

While much of the mainstream analysis ballyhoos over the recent increase in operating earnings, it is often overlooked that operating earnings still haven’t surpassed their previous peak. Reported earnings and actual sales even less so. Importantly, a large chunk of forward estimates and guidance have been based on the assumption of the “dollar for dollar” impact of tax-related legislation.





Quick Note: It is worth noting that while mainstream analysts continue to point to the “number of companies beating estimates,” can I just remind you that it took estimates being DRAMATICALLY lowered in order to achieve that goal. In fact, for the end of 2017 estimates are more than $10 LOWER than where they began. After all, we live in a society where “everyone gets a trophy”, right?

That will only go so far, and if Congress fails to push through the tax forms to support the currently elevated estimates and valuations, at some point, the markets are going to demand – “Show Me The Money!”





But that is for another day.

For now, since I live in Houston, I am going to hunker down, spin up my special blend of “Frozen Hurricanes,” and delve into my reading list.

A Frozen Hurricane “Harvey”:

1. 2 oz light rum.
2. 2 oz dark rum.
3. 2 oz passion fruit juice.
4. 1 oz orange juice.
5. ½ oz fresh lime juice.
6. 1 Tablespoon simple syrup.
7. 1 Tablespoon grenadine.
8. Garnish: orange slice and cherry.
9. Blend with sufficient ice to make a “slushy concoction”

Feel free to join me.

Politics/Fed/Economy

• The Fed’s Job Is Getting Tougher by Lawrence Summers via Washington Post
• Is Trump Bump Running On Vapor? by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• The Unintended Consequences Of QE by Jean-Michel Paul via Bloomberg
• Tax Reform In 2017 Is Doomed by Henry Aaron via Real Clear Markets
• The Goldman Sacks Regency by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
• Why Tax Reform Won’t Get Done by Jake Novak via CNBC
• Congress Just Got A Big Warning About A Debt Ceiling Fight by Bob Bryan via BI
• Charlottesville, Trump & A Broken Gov’t. by Daniel Payne via The Federalist
• How The Corrupt Media Works by Dennis Prager via Real Clear Politics
• Trump’s Zero-Sum Choice, Wall Or Tax Cut by Howard Gleckman via Forbes
• Fed Just Released A Stark Warning About Stocks by Joe Ciolli via BI
• The Failure Of The Trump Presidency by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
• McConnell, Trump Spat Puts GDP Agenda At Risk by Susan Milligan via US News
• We Live In Fear Of Online Mobs by Megan McArdle via Bloomberg

Why You Suck At Investing




Markets

• Here’s The Big Deception In The Market by Jack Bouroudjian via CNBC
• The Last Plunge In Stocks Was Pedestrian by Sean Williams via Motley Fool
• Stock Market Has Been Magical, It Can’t Last by Jeff Sommer via NYT
• S&P 500 Offers Little In Way Of Returns by John Coumarianos via MarketWatch
• The Truth About The Russell 2ooo P/E Ratio by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch
• Markets Are Losing Patience With Trump by David Ader via Bloomberg
• August Storm Before The Calm? by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• 3-Do’s And Don’ts For Boosting Portfolio Returns by Simon Constable via US News
• Another Red Flag For Shale Oil by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com
• What Wall Street’s Most Bullish Strategist Is Saying by Myles Udland via Yahoo Finance
• Indicators To Watch During The Correction by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders
• Stock Market Returns Are Not Normal by Dean Curnutt via Bloomberg
• Investors Should Embrace Uncertainty & Volatility by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets
• 7-Signs The Market Could Hit The Wall by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch

Research / Interesting Reads

• When There Is Blood In The Streets by Nick Maggiulli via Dollars and Data
• Crowded Trades & The Next Quant Meltdown by Michelle Celarier via Institutional Investor
• The Inconvenient Truth About Gore & Climate “Experts” by Lawrence McQuillan via IBD
• Housing Recovery Suffers, Don’t Blame Millennials by Diana Olick via CNBC
• It Looks A Whole Lot Like 1937 by Ray Dalio
• 13-Ways Successful People Get More S*** Done by Dan Waldschmidt via CNBC
• How Far Will $1 Million Go In Retirement by Suzanne Woolley via Bloomberg
• 10-Questions You Should Ask BEFORE Taking A Job by Liz Ryan via Forbes
• Electric Vehicle Goals Ignore Scientific Facts by Steve Pociask via Forbes
• The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel via Collaborative Fund
• Softbank’s Brilliant Plan For A Smarter Internet by Vitaliy Katsenelson via Contrarian Edge
• Facebook Faces A Demographic Time Bomb by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Valuations Are Totally Divorced From Reality by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• Nice Stock Bounce, But… by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• Have We Learned Nothing From The Financial Crisis by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” –John Templeton

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-


S&P sectors for the past week-

 

End of August Market Weakness

Over the last 21 years, the last four trading days of August (next week) have been somewhat bearish. The lone exception to this trend appears to be the small-cap Russell 2000 index which has managed a small average gain of 0.04% while advancing 12 times (57.1% of the time). The worst losses came in 1998 (Russia turmoil, currency crisis and hedge fund debacle) during the briefest bear market on record. Solids gains were logged in 2015 and 2011 (brisk sell-offs occurred earlier in the month in each year). DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have been down five times in last eight years.

September Worst Month of the Year

Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA (–0.8%), S&P 500 (–0.5%), NASDAQ (–0.5%) (since 1971), Russell 1000 (–0.6%), and Russell 2000 (–0.5%) (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. In post-election years, September’s overall rank improves modestly in post-election years going back to 1953 (second, third or fourth worst month depending on index). Average losses are little changed. Although September 2001 does influence the average declines, the fact remains DJIA and S&P 500 have declined in 9 of the last 16 post-election year Septembers.

Although the month has opened strong 13 of the last 22 years, once tans begin to fade and the new school year begins, fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (Dow: -11.1%) and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (Dow: -6.0%). Solid September gains in 2010; DJIA’s 7.7%, S&P 500’s 8.8% were the best since 1939, but the month suffered nearly the same magnitude declines in 2011, confirming that September can be a volatile month.

Regardless of August performance, September also challenging

In the above table the last 67 years of August S&P 500 performance has been split into positive and negative. Thirty-one negative Augusts were followed by September losses 51.6% of the time with an average loss of 0.44%. Thirty-five positive Augusts were followed by September losses 54.8% of the time with a slightly larger loss of 0.58%. August’s performance, positive or negative appears to have little influence upon September and its tendency for declines. However, past August declines were followed by bigger gains in the fourth quarter, 5.67% compared to 2.72%.

Is Dr. Copper sending mixed signals?

Copper has a myriad of industrial uses making it a vital element of the modern day economy. Because of this fact it is often been thought of as a leading indicator for economic activity and for stock markets. Copper’s recent surge back to around 3$ per pound has caught the attention of many, but is this surge being correctly interpreted?

As a leading indicator, copper’s recent surge would seem to suggest strength or at the very least anticipated economic strength which could in turn result in higher stock prices. This may or may not be the full picture. Some of copper’s recent move could also be due to forecast supply shortages this year and next. Some of this surge could be in anticipation of massive U.S. infrastructure spending. And in the next chart, U.S. dollar weakness is also likely giving copper a boost. Year-to-date, the U.S. dollar index is down 8.7% compared to a 19.3% gain by copper.

Lastly and potentially least optimistic is the possibility that copper could be forming the proverbial top that has frequently preceded other stock bull market tops. Although, we should not be overly concerned with this possibility until copper’s current rally actually begins to fizzle or actually breaks down.

What Could A Government Shutdown Mean For Equities?
Posted by lplresearch

Although we consider it unlikely, the U.S. government could shut down later this month for the first time since 2013 if a must-pass spending bill does not clear Congress. Shutdowns have been rare the past two decades, but they happened quite often in the ‘70s and ‘80s. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “There has been slight underperformance on average during times of a shutdown, but recent history suggests markets look past Washington’s squabbling, regardless of the length of a shutdown. The previous two shutdowns in 1995/1996 and 2013 did little to slow down those bull markets, despite each lasting more than two weeks.”



Two final things to consider:

• The last two times a government shutdown happened when Republicans controlled both the House and Senate (as they do now), the market rose.
• The previous 18 shutdowns started in September, October, November, or December. This could be the first shutdown in any other month, making an April shutdown all the more interesting.

Breadth Still Not Great
Aug 23, 2017


The S&P 500 re-took its 50-day moving average yesterday, but unfortunately it did so without more than half of its index members closing above their 50-days as well. As shown below, only 48% of stocks in the S&P are currently above their 50-day moving averages. Bulls would like to see a much stronger reading than that based on where the S&P is currently trading.



Below is a look at the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages by sector. As shown, five cyclical sectors have breadth readings that are weaker than the 48% reading for the broad S&P 500. Energy is all the way down at 16%, while Industrials and Consumer Discretionary are at 40% or less. The two sectors with the strongest breadth levels are both defensive in nature — Utilities and Consumer Staples. We’d prefer to see the script flipped with cyclicals leading and defensives lagging.



S&P 500 vs. Russell 2,000: Year To Date Relative Performance
Aug 21, 2017

While it made an attempt to close the day in the green, the Russell 2,000 small-cap index finished down 7 basis points on Monday. This is notable because it left the index in the red on a year-to-date basis.

As shown below, the Russell 2,000 is lagging the large-cap S&P 500 badly in 2017. Through today’s close, the S&P is outperforming the Russell by roughly 8.3 percentage points YTD.



Below is a table showing the year-to-date performance of both the S&P 500 and Russell 2,000 at this point in each year since 1979 (the Russell 2,000’s inception point). For each year, we also show how the two indices performed for the remainder of the year.

At this point in the year (160 trading days), 2017 is only the third year in which the S&P 500 was up while the Russell 2,000 was down. It’s also been the third worst year ever for the Russell 2,000 on a relative basis versus the S&P 500 at this point in the year.

Interestingly, we saw a very similar underperformance scenario for the Russell 2,000 just 3 years ago in 2014. Through 160 trading days in 2014, the S&P 500 was up 7.47% compared to the Russell 2,000’s decline of 0.53%. In that year, both indices gained from August 21st through year-end, with the Russell slightly out-gaining the S&P (+4.08% vs. +3.64%).

The other year where the S&P 500 was up at this point while the Russell was down was in 1998. In that year the Russell underperformance was more than 2x as bad, though. While the S&P 500 was up 12.49% on August 20th, 1998, the Russell 2,000 was down 8.38%! In that year, the S&P 500 went on to gain another 12.61% for the remainder of the year, while the Russell only gained another 4.96%.



Below we provide chart patterns of the S&P 500 vs. Russell 2,000 in both 2014 and 1998, with the blue shading representing the first 160 trading days of each year.





Gold: Third Time the Charm or Third Strike?
Aug 22, 2017

It was less than two weeks ago that we were watching one of the cable news networks, and the panel was discussing what viewers should expect in a war with North Korea since so many of them considered it a sure thing. The next week, the same panel had moved on from North Korea and was discussing the process by which President Trump will leave office. For all this reported chaos in the world right now, one would think that the price of gold would be seeing at least a little action, but over the last four months or so, it has merely been bouncing around between $1,200 and $1,300, or a range of less than 8%. In the most recent leg higher, gold has once again tested the top end of its range and for now, at least, it has been stopped in its tracks. Will the third time be the charm for gold or are we in for just more of the range?

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 8.28.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Monday 8.28.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 8.29.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Tuesday 8.29.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 8.30.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 8.30.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 8.31.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 8.31.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 9.1.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Friday 9.1.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

TSMFers come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (8/28-9/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (8/28-9/1) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (8/28) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================
And lastly here are our upcoming monthly stock market poll & stock picking challenge end of this week!-

First the poll-

• Monthly SPX Poll - September 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your monthly vote for September!

And here is our stock picking challenge thread-

• TSMF September 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your monthly picks for September!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join and participate with us on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 8.25.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon

 

And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings releases calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($BBY $NTNX $ADI $PANW $LULU $CIEN $DG $CTRP $BOX $MBT $AMBA $SXI $WDAY $TD $CTLT $BNED $BNS $HRB $CPB)


Best Buy Co., Inc. $61.87
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $8.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.57 to $0.62 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.53% with revenue increasing by 1.49%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.8% above its 200 day moving average of $49.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,693 contracts of the $62.50 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.5% move in recent quarters.


Nutanix, Inc. $21.95
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, August 31, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.33 per share on revenue of $217.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.34) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 68.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% below its 200 day moving average of $23.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,001 contracts of the $30.00 put and 1,001 contracts of the $30.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 14.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Analog Devices, Inc. $78.97
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 30, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.15 per share on revenue of $1.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.07 to $1.21 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.24% with revenue increasing by 61.00%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.1% above its 200 day moving average of $77.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 15,417 contracts of the $75.00 put expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Palo Alto Networks, Inc. $128.63
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 31, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.78 per share on revenue of $486.17 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.80 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.78 to $0.80 per share on revenue of $481.00 million to $491.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 254.55% with revenue increasing by 21.30%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.2% below its 200 day moving average of $130.21. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,407 contracts of the $108.00 put expiring on Friday, September 1, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 10.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.2% move in recent quarters.


lululemon athletica inc. $60.21
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, August 31, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.35 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.33 to $0.35 per share on revenue of $565.00 million to $570.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.89% with revenue increasing by 94.16%. Short interest has decreased by 18.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.3% above its 200 day moving average of $59.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,910 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 11.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.7% move in recent quarters.


Ciena Corporation $23.87
Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 31, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.49 per share on revenue of $728.74 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $710.00 million to $740.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.67% with revenue increasing by 8.68%. The stock has drifted lower by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.7% below its 200 day moving average of $24.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 7,424 contracts of the $23.00 call expiring on Friday, September 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.0% move in recent quarters.


Dollar General Corporation $77.67
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 31, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.09 per share on revenue of $5.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.93% with revenue increasing by 7.75%. Short interest has increased by 86.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% above its 200 day moving average of $73.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 15,008 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.


Ctrip.com International Ltd $52.48
Ctrip.com International Ltd (CTRP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 30, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $909.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 217.65% with revenue increasing by 33.00%. Short interest has increased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $49.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 there was some notable buying of 22,031 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.


Mobile TeleSystem OJSC $9.28
Mobile TeleSystem OJSC (MBT) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Monday, August 28, 2017. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.1% below its 200 day moving average of $9.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,110 contracts of the $7.00 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Box, Inc. $19.58
Box, Inc. (BOX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 30, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.13 per share on revenue of $121.57 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.13 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $121.00 million to $122.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.18% with revenue increasing by 27.02%. The stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.5% above its 200 day moving average of $17.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

 

ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.27.17 - Welcome to Dismaland
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

So what's lighting up everyone's radar as we head into this final trading week of August?

I imagine volumes will be a lot lower than the norm due to this essentially being the final week of the summer.

Jobs # at the end of the week could be interesting.

What are you guys eyeing this week?

 

Good morning!