Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for October 9th - 13th

Welcome TSMF to the trading week of October 9th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:




Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:








What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

T.B.A.

 

Investors "Most Euphoric" In 23 Years Despite Korea, Crap Data, Crude Crash, & Coming Storms
The market...



Trannies ended the week lower (first down-week in 7 weeks), Dow outperformed on the week (4th week up in a row)... The S&P record-high streak is over...







Nasdaq managed to close in the green and a new record high today...





Investors have not been this 'euphoric' of the S&P 500 since 1994...






VIX and the S&P were both higher on the week for the first time since February...





VIX was pumped and dumped again in a desperate effort to get the S&P green and to a new record high for the 7th day in a row... (NOTE its the 8th day in a row that stocks ramped after Europe closed)



Just look at VIX at the close!



Notably Russell 2000 and its implied vol remain seriously decoupled...





But, uncertainty about VIX (VVIX) has never been higher relative to the uber-complacent level of VIX...





Energy and Retailers were the week's laggards as Financials and tech led...





As 'hard' economic data has collapsed (not the soft survey data), so high-tax companies have soared (and yet we are told that tax reform is 'not priced in')...





Walgreens and CVS were AMZN'd...





FANG Stocks had their 2nd best week in 3 months, ending at record highs...





"high-tax" companies are dramatically underperforming the market since trump unveiled his tax plan...





Bank stocks recoupled with the flatter yield curve post-FOMC midweek, but then decoupled again the last 2 days...





Treasury yields ended the week higher with some serious volatility today...





With yields spiking on the poor payrolls data (hawkish on the earnings data) but then North Korean headlines spooked them lower...





As rate-hike odds for December hit 80%...





The Dollar Index rose for the 4th straight week (longest streak since Oct 2016)...





Bitcoin rallied for the 2nd week in a row...but was notably less volatile this week...





Crude crashed almost 5% this week - the worst week in 5 months, ending back below $50 (and below its 200DMA). Gasoline fell for the 2nd week in a row...





While gold spiked today in North Korea headlines it remained lower on the week (4th weekly drop in a row - longest streak since Dec). Silver managed to scramble back into the green for the week today...





Finally, we note that the market's most important driver - central bank liquidity - has tumbled in the last month, but the most since Nov...





Which does not bode well for stocks...

 

Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Bull Market In Complacency

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

With the market recently breaking above 2500, there seems to be nothing to dampen the bullish exuberance. The recent run, which has largely been focused on areas in the market with the most sensitivity to tax cuts, has exploded over the last two weeks to record highs.

That explosion has also lead to a surge in the Market Greed/Fear Gauge which comprises different measures of market complacency and bullishness.



But the rush to chase performance can be clearly seen in the chart below of the S&P 600 index (small cap) which is now 4-standard deviations above the 6-month moving average.



Then there is the widely viewed CNN Fear/Greed Index.




Of course, not surprisingly, with investors as optimistic and bullish as they can be equity to money market ratios are at extremes.



And “Dumb Money” is continuing to pile into markets as “Smart Money” is willing to sell positions to them.



After 9-years of a bull market, and pushing a 270% gain from the lows, investors have now decided it is now time to get back into the market. But that is the nature of a bull market, and particularly one that has entered into the final stages of long-term cyclical advance, where the last of the “holdouts” are sucked back into the game.

As we enter into earnings season, we once again enter into the “beat the estimates game,” where analysts act surprised that companies “beat” lowered estimates. In the short-term, these “beat rates” will provide support for the bullish case, but in the long-term, it is valuations and actual revenue growth that matters.

I agree with Doug’s sentiment yesterday:

• Massive injections of liquidity from the world’s central bankers
• Passive investing (quants and ETFs) are now dominating markets (at nearly 40%) at the margin
• Machines and algorithms, as well as many individual investors, are behaving differently as they are now programmed and conditioned to buy the dips.
• 17% of the listed shares outstanding have been retired in corporate stock repurchases since the Generational Low in March, 2009.
• More than half of the listed companies on the exchanges have disappeared over the last eight years

“We have a Bull Market in Complacency.” – Doug Kass

Clearly.

Here’s your reading list to for the weekend.

Trump Tax Cuts…

• We Elected You, You Owe Us by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
• An Analysis Of Trumps Tax Plan by The Tax Policy Center
• GOP’s Views On Tax Plan Is Propaganda by Bob Bryan via Business Insider
• Bravo To The GOP For Their Tax Plan by Stephen Moore via The Washington Times
• Trump’s Tax Cuts Will Be Small In The End by Robert Samuelson via RCM
• Link Between Tax Cuts & Growth Is Tenuous by Kate Davidson via WSJ
• Trump’s Tax Plan Promises Are All Wrong by Annie Lowrey via The Atlantic
• Politicians Forget That Real People Pay Taxes by Ira Stoll via RCM
• Tax Reform, The Time Has Come by Wayne Brough via The American Spectator
• If The GOP Can’t Pass Tax Cuts, It’s Over by Adam Brandon via Washington Examiner
• It Won’t Pass – Buffett & Fink Blast Reform Plan by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Exposing Democrat Lies On Tax Reform by Betsy McCaughey via NY Post
• Trump Pushing Pass-Through Businesses by Pedro Da Costa via BI
• Tax Cuts Will Widen Gap Between Rich & Poor by Eduardo Porter via NY Times
• Detail On Who Pays What In Taxes via RIA

Markets

• Bear Market Closer With Each New High by Michael Sincere via MarketWatch
• The Holy Grail Of Investing by Alex Barrow via Macro Ops
• What If High Stock Value Revert? by Haghani & White via Bloomberg
• The Coming Bear Market? by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate
• More Stocks Are Driving The Market by Alex Rosenberg via CNBC
• The Are No Bears Left…Not One by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
• The Stock Market Impact Of Tax Reform by Bryan Borzykowski via Morningstar
• Transports Resurgence Bodes Well For Market by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
• Why Your Neighbors Stock Buying Is Bearish by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch
• US Shale Not As Strong As It Appears by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com
• Could The QE Unwind Trigger A Liquidity Crisis by Lucy Burton via The Telegraph
• Small Cap Rally Is Over Extended by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
• Value Is Getting Hard To Come By by Vitaliy Katsenelson via RIA
• Active Vs Passive Conflict by Doug Kass via RIA
• Wall Street Fear Hits A Historic Low by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch

Research / Interesting Reads

• Lenders Continue To Loosen Standards…Big Time by Mark Hanson via MHanson.com
• Your Investment Risk Isn’t What You Think by WSJ
• 4-Fundamental Skills Of All Investing by Morgan Housel via Collaborative Fund
• Skilled Managers Should Hold Fewer Stocks by Amy Whyte via Institutional Investor
• Machine Learning For Investors by Druce Vertes via Alpha Architect
• Active Managers Are Having A Great Year by Joe Ciolli via BI
• How Dollar Weakness Affects Wall Street by Simon Constable via US News
• This Is A Crisis Bigger Than Any Gov’t Can Fix by John Mauldin via Mauldin Economics
• JP Morgan: Here’s What Can Cause The Next Crisis by Joe Ciolli via BI
• What I’ve Learned In 14-Years Of Covering Retirementby Robert Powell via MarketWatch
• Nobody Know What Will Happen by Geisinger & Dittli via Finanz Und Wirtschaft
• Blissful Delusion by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
• “Most Hated Rally” Getting Record Love by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
• Stocks Aren’t At All Fairly Priced To Rates by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report

“In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.“ – Jesse Livermore

 

Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-



S&P sectors for the past week-

 

S&P 500’s daily winning streak in jeopardy

Historically, S&P 500 has enjoyed 49 daily consecutive winning streaks since 1950, excluding the current streak, that have lasted 8 trading days or longer. The average gain during those past 49 streaks was 4.88% compared to the current streak’s 2.22% (as of yesterday’s close). Of the previous 49 streaks, 27 (55.1%) lasted more than 8 days. Thirteen streaks (26.5%) ended at 9 trading days. Six (12.2%) made it 10 days, three (6.1%) to 11 days, four (8.2%) to 12 days and one (2.0%) ran 14 days.

On average once the streak ended S&P 500 continued to move higher over the next 30 and 60 trading days, only at a slower pace. Over the next 6-months and year S&P 500 was higher 75.5% and 73.5% of the time respectively.


Market Rips Past Historical Patterns—Will Q4 Expectations Be Satisfied?

With the first three quarters of 2017 officially in the record books we have updated our 1-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts of Seventh Years of Decades, Post-Election Years, Newly Elected Republican Administrations, All New Elected Administrations and 2017 year-to-date. At today’s close, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all were at new all-time highs. All three indices are also well above typical Post-Election year performance, the performance of past Newly Elected Republican Administrations, the 7th Year of decades and All First Elected new administrations performance. Will the market have enough gas left to meet lofty Q4 expectations after solid third quarter gains?




Typical October Pattern: Nearly Perfect Start to Finish

During the most recent 21-year period, 1996 to 2016, October has been a solid performing month. It is NASDAQ’s #1 month with an average 2.4% gain. October is #2 for S&P 500 (+1.9%) and #3 for DJIA (+2.0%). Based upon the above seasonal pattern chart October typically begins well with all five indexes generally trading higher over the first four trading days of the month, then weaken modestly over the fifth, sixth and seventh trading days before moving higher through the end of the month with just a minor hint of weakness around trading days 17 and 18.

Dollar Staging a Coup
Oct 6, 2017

After a performance that was putting it on pace for its worst year in a long time, the dollar has seen quite a bounce recently as prospects for a December rate hike increase and the US economy picks up steam. After a YTD decline of over 10% through early September, the Bloomberg US Dollar Index has rallied nearly 4% in less than a month! What’s really notable about the bounce is that the Dollar Index has not only broken back above its 50-DMA (a level it didn’t trade above all summer), but it has also broken the downtrend range that it had been stuck in all year long. That’s an encouraging sign, even if the Dollar Index is still down over 7% on the year.



The recent rally in the dollar has also helped to put the breaks on the recent rally in crude oil, which is good for the consumer. After nearly kissing $53 in late September, crude has been under a bit of pressure in the last two weeks and dropped back below $50 earlier today. Anything that keeps some pressure on oil prices, we’ll take.



Percentage of Industry Groups Above 50-DMA
Oct 5, 2017

With the S&P 500 on pace for its eighth straight day of gains, one would expect that just about everything would be in rally mode and above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Looking at the numbers, though, that isn’t the case. The chart below shows a running total of the percentage of S&P 500 Industry Groups that are currently trading above their 50-DMA. As of this morning, just over 70% of the 24 S&P 500 Industry Groups are above that short-term trendline. While that represents a vast majority, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs on what seems like a daily basis, we would expect to see a higher reading. What’s perhaps even more surprising, though, is that the current reading is only slightly below the average reading of 69.6% for all days so far in 2017!



So what Industry Groups are holding the market back? The table below shows the YTD change of all 24 S&P 500 Industry Groups along with where they are currently trading versus the 50-DMA. Groups that are still trading below their 50-DMA are Food Beverages & Tobacco, Media, Utilities, Commercial Services, Consumer Durables, Food & Staples Retail, and Real Estate. Obviously, it has been a tough time for stocks in the Consumer Staples sector as well as those paying relatively high dividends. Despite the relative weakness of these Industry Groups, though, not a single one is more than 2% below its 50-DMA, so it wouldn’t take much to get them back above that level.

On the other end of the performance spectrum, the Autos and Auto Parts Industry Group is currently more than 10% above its 50-DMA. That’s pretty extended on a short-term basis! Additionally, four other Industry Groups are more than 5% above their 50-DMAs.



US Stock Market Up 60%+ From Prior All-Time Highs
Oct 5, 2017

The long-term price chart for major US equity indices continues to amaze. Below are charts of the large-cap S&P 500 and Wilshire 5,000 (all US stocks) going back to 1990. At this point, the S&P 500 is up 62% from the all-time high it made back in 2007 prior to the Financial Crisis. The index needs to get just above 3,000 to mark a “double” from its prior highs.

The Wilshire 5,000 is up even more from its prior bull market high made in 2007 at +67%.





While the price chart for the S&P 500 shows huge gains versus prior all-time highs, things aren’t nearly as strong for global equity markets. As shown below, the Bloomberg World Index (which still has a big US weighting) is indeed at new all-time highs, but it’s up just 13% from its 2007 bull market high.



And emerging markets aren’t even at new highs compared to 2007. As shown below, the EEM ETF is still down 18%!

If you had to choose between US equities and international equities, which asset class will perform better over the next ten years?



The Most Volatile Stocks on Earnings
Oct 4, 2017

The start of the new quarter brings with it the start of another earnings season, and next week is when we’ll start to hear from companies reporting their Q3 2017 earnings. As we do prior to the start of each earnings season, in this post we update our list of the most volatile stocks on earnings.

Using our Interactive Earnings Report Database (which you can use for 30 days for just $1 by joining Bespoke Institutional here), we’re able to calculate the average move that stocks experience on their earnings reaction days. For a stock that reports in the morning before the open, its earnings reaction day is that same trading day. For a stock that reports after the close, we use the next trading day.

Below is a look at how volatile stocks are on earnings by sector. Since 2001, US stocks have experienced an average move of +/-5.80% on their earnings reaction day. This means that quarterly earnings reports typically result in a change in market cap of +/-5.8% for public companies. But some sectors are more volatile than others of course. As shown in the chart, Tech stocks that reports earnings typically move an average of +/-7.60% on their earnings reaction day. Conversely, the average stock in the Utilities sector only moves +/-2.25% on earnings. It’s not surprising that Tech stocks are 3x as volatile as Utilities stocks when it comes to earnings reactions, but these numbers help to quantify the differences.

Generally speaking, stocks in the Utilities, Real Estate, and Financial sectors move the least on earnings, while Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care stocks move the most.



Using our Interactive Earnings Report Database, below is a list of the individual stocks set to report between now and the end of November that typically move the most on their earnings reaction days. To make the list, a stock must have at least 12 quarters (3 years) of earnings reports and trade for more than $10/share.

As shown, Yelp (YELP) is the most volatile stock on earnings with an average one-day change of +/-15.91%. LendingTree (TREE) ranks second and is the only other stock that typically moves more than +/-15%. Applied Opto (AAOI), ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), and Silicom (SILC) round out the top five.

Netflix (NFLX) is the most well-known stock in the top ten with an average one-day change of +/-13.68% on earnings. Other notable names on the list include Wayfair (W), Tableau Software (DATA), Twitter (TWTR), First Solar (FSLR), FireEye (FEYE), Priceline (PCLN), and GoPro (GPRO).

One final note. In the table below we’ve also included how far each stock is currently trading from its 50-day moving average. Heading into earnings season, there are a lot of stocks trading significantly above their 50-day moving averages (overbought). For stocks on the list with prices that are extended to the upside, expectations are going to be quite high for earnings. Failure to meet these lofty expectations will likely result in significant pain for investors. The reverse is true for stocks that are trading well below their 50-day moving averages.



2017 YTD Performance of the 40 Largest Stocks
Oct 2, 2017

Below is a look at the year-to-date performance of the 40 largest stocks in the US through the end of the third quarter. As shown, the five biggest companies are all Tech related (even though AMZN is categorized as Consumer Discretionary), and they’re all up 19% or more year-to-date. Of the five largest stocks, Facebook (FB) is up the most this year with a gain of 48.52%.

While Facebook is up the most of the five largest stocks, Boeing (BA) is up the most of the stocks listed with a YTD gain of 63%. General Electric (GE) is the worst performer with a YTD decline of 23.48%.



The Incredible Streaks Continue
Posted by lplresearch

“We’re going streaking.”

-Frank “The Tank” Ricard from Old School

Equity markets continue to move higher, and as a result, several long streaks are taking place. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “This is the Frank ‘The Tank’ market, as multiple streaks have taken place recently that are in the history books, with some being the most impressive ever.”

Here are some of the notable recent streaks:

• Yesterday ended a streak of 17 consecutive closes for the S&P 500 Index within 0.5% of its previous closing price – the longest streak of small daily changes since 1969.
• The S&P 500 Index has closed higher 8 days in a row for the first time since 2013 and has closed at all-time highs 6 days in a row for the first time since June 1997.
• The S&P 500 has been up 8 consecutive quarters for the fifth time ever.
• The Russell 2000 Index recently closed at a new all-time high eight days in a row.
• The Euro STOXX 600 recently closed higher nine days in a row—the longest streak in more than two years.
• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) yesterday closed at 9.19, its lowest close in history. It also closed beneath 10 for 7 consecutive days for the second time ever. Last, it averaged only 10.94 in the third quarter which is its lowest quarterly average ever.
• The Russell Microcap Index recently closed at a new all-time high 12 out of 14 days.
• The S&P 500 has closed higher a record 11 consecutive months on a total return basis (i.e., including dividends). Since 1950*, that has only happened two other times, with both instances taking place during the bull market of the 1950s. Be aware though, neither of those made it to 12 months.

Now That’s a Win Streak



Frank “The Tank’s” run through the quad and into the gymnasium eventually ended—and these long market streaks will eventually end as well. It is important to remember that daily streaks of new highs can’t go on forever, and that increases in volatility aren’t necessarily something to be overly concerned about; pullbacks are a regular part of investing. In fact, the latter stages of the economic cycle have historically seen relatively more volatility, and we expect it to pick up in the fourth quarter and as we head into 2018.

Seasonal Patterns Show Reduced Likelihood for a Negative October Effect on Stocks
Posted by lplresearch

The October Effect has a reputation for making some investors nervous; however, based on seasonal statistics, we believe stocks are more likely to move higher in October rather than lower.

The October Effect reminds investors that two out of three historical Black Monday stock market crashes occurred during this Halloween month. The first Black Monday took place on October 28, 1929—and the great depression followed shortly thereafter. The second occurred on October 19, 1987, when the S&P 500 Index fell approximately 20.5 %.

Our latest analysis identified four sectors that showed a seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 during October over the last 20 years—a month when the index has on average moved higher by 1.9%, generating positive returns 65% of the time. As we review the data, it’s important to note that non-seasonal factors still influence performance and should not be ignored.

The table below highlights sectors’ average over- and under-performance versus the S&P 500 during October since 1997, as well as the top-performing industry groups over the same time period:



Looking at the table above, the information technology, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and financials sectors have on average tended to exhibit the highest relative strength versus the index in October over the past 20 years. This increases the likelihood that the upward trajectory may continue. But, if you are looking for a more targeted strategy, a potential shining star within the seasonally weak industrial sector may be the transportation industry group.

Even though the month of October generally involves being surrounded by scary things, it does not necessarily mean that it has to be frightening for equity investors. Seasonal statistics suggest that equities are likely to continue higher this month—and it could be a good time to consider implementing seasonal analysis as part of your portfolio management plan.

Where Did All the Big Moves Go?
Posted by lplresearch

There have only been eight moves of at least 1% for the S&P 500 Index so far this year—the least since 13 in 1995. The all-time record was an incredible three in 1963. What about a big move? The last time the S&P 500 moved at least 4% was nearly six years ago. In fact, the S&P 500 had four consecutive days with 4% (or greater) changes in August 2011. Other than 2008 and the crash of ’87, that is the only other time since the Great Depression to see four consecutive 4% changes. That isn’t anything like today’s action.

As the chart below shows, so far in 2017, big moves have been nonexistent; and even 1% changes have been rare. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “If you had forecast that the 11 months after the 2016 U.S. presidential election would be one of the least volatile periods ever, you would be in the minority. Then again, the last time we saw a streak of calm like this was the year after John F. Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963. Once again proving that the market rarely does what the masses expect and usually surprises us.”

 

​

Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

Monday 10.9.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Monday 10.9.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Tuesday 10.10.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

Tuesday 10.10.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.11.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Wednesday 10.11.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.12.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Thursday 10.12.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 10.13.17 Before Market Open:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

Friday 10.13.17 After Market Close:

Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!

NONE.

 

Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-
(I really don't know why I keep posting this in here...it's not like we're gonna ever pullback/correct in this market! )

 

Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 10.6.17
Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.8.17 - Short term vs Long Term
Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek

 

TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-

• Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/9-10/13) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote for this upcoming week!

In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-

• TSMF Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/9-10/13) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week!

We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-

• TSMF Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/9) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote & stock pick for Monday!

========================================================================================================

And lastly do you think the SPX will pullback -3% or greater from now until EOY?-

• Will the SPX dip -3% or greater from now until EOY? Yes or No? Vote! <-- vote here yes or no!

========================================================================================================

It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these.

I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!

 

Earnings season begins.

Here are the most notable ER calendar due out for this upcoming week ahead:
($BAC $C $JPM $DAL $DPZ $BLK $FAST $WFC $CUDA $OZRK $PNC $LNN $FRC $FHN $JBHT $DFRG $VOXX $SAR $HAWK $EXFO)


Bank of America Corp. $26.21
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Friday, October 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $22.19 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.76% with revenue decreasing by 7.71%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $23.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 62,109 contracts of the $26.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.


Citigroup, Inc. $75.64
Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, October 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $17.73 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.32 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.00% with revenue decreasing by 15.31%. Short interest has increased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.2% above its 200 day moving average of $62.93. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 101,352 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, January 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.6% move in recent quarters.


JPMorgan Chase & Co. $96.92
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.67 per share on revenue of $24.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.70% with revenue decreasing by 7.92%. Short interest has increased by 14.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.1% above its 200 day moving average of $88.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 4, 2017 there was some notable buying of 35,400 contracts of the $57.50 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.5% move in recent quarters.


Delta Air Lines, Inc. $52.01
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, October 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.54 per share on revenue of $11.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.41% with revenue increasing by 5.22%. Short interest has increased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $49.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, September 26, 2017 there was some notable buying of 25,064 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.6% move in recent quarters.


Domino's Pizza, Inc. $205.39
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.22 per share on revenue of $623.72 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.08% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 138.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% above its 200 day moving average of $188.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 552 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 5.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.


BlackRock, Inc. $463.22
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.58 per share on revenue of $3.10 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.56% with revenue increasing by 9.27%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $401.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 4, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,555 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 1.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Fastenal Co. $46.03
Fastenal Co. (FAST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, October 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $1.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.50 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 11.54%. Short interest has increased by 18.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $46.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 4, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,854 contracts of the $44.00 put expiring on Friday, October 20, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Wells Fargo & Co. $55.58
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, October 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.03 per share on revenue of $22.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue decreasing by 6.55%. Short interest has increased by 33.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.4% above its 200 day moving average of $54.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, September 28, 2017 there was some notable buying of 9,388 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.5% move in recent quarters.


Barracuda Networks Inc $25.91
Barracuda Networks Inc (CUDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 10, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $93.56 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.16 to $0.18 per share on revenue of $92.00 million to $94.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.25% with revenue increasing by 6.40%. The stock has drifted higher by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $23.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 10.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.


Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. $48.11
Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (OZRK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, October 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.74 per share on revenue of $243.67 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.12% Short interest has decreased by 23.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,832 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

 

interesting today was the 10yr anniversary of the SPX peaking at 1,565. i vaguely remember that day.

if y'all recall the SPX eventually bottomed out at 666 on 3/6/09 (-57%) ... since that low the SPX is up +282%

meanwhile, the SPX full intraday trading range on Friday was just 0.22% and is 0.27% so far today. there have only been 4 other times we saw a smaller 2-day range since 1970.

happy columbus day